Monday, July 28, 2003

Should America Intervene in Liberia?

For many people, this seems like a no-brainer. Not faced with the real costs of a troop demployment, it's easy enough to be an armchair general and assume that American should intervene because it's the right thing to do. Amazingly, the argument that it's the right thing to do is probably the strongest one in favour of a deployment in Liberia. I believe that there is reason to be much more cautious about a deployment, but I would still back it.

Why should America intervene? Some people claim that America should intervene because of cultural ties, and because Liberia was founded by freed American slaves. This argument is pretty week in my opinion. Do former colonial powers have obligations to their former dependencies? Most former colonies tend to spurn intervention by their former colonial masters. There is no international law that says so. The existence of such a law would legitimate much more intervention on the part of former colonial powers, and it's probably good that such a law does not exist. America did not cause Liberia's current woes. Charles Taylor brought this upon his country by spurring civil wars in neighbouring countries. Once a colony gains independence, the obligations of the colonial master are practically nullified. The only obligation may be a moral one, which leads to the next argument in favour.

The most vital argument in favour of intervention is that morally, it makes sense. Liberia has been suffering from civil war for years, and it is among the poorest countries in the world. Liberia's long suffering people need intervention to prevent massive bloodshed. The costs versus the benefits would be quite favourable given the number of people who's lives could be saved by a small, but well-equiped intervention force, coupled with humanitarian assistance. An American intervention would likely be successful, especially since unlike many other places, the locals actually WANT them there. A disciplined, and well equiped intervention force could probably beat back the drugged up thugs of both the government and rebel armies.

Why shouldn't America intervene? In the short term, the main argument against intervention is that the situation is way to chaotic to act in a peacekeeping capacity. Also, what would be America's role? Would they be propping up the government? Really, America wants to see Charles Taylor go, so intervening could run counter the long-run interest of Liberians, who would be better off without him. The situation on the ground is very fluid, and ceasefire has been a joke. There is the potential for America's intervention force to get a bloody nose if they meet organised resistance from either the government or the rebels. America does not want to invade. Their role (as they hope) would be to bring security and calm by helping to enforce a ceasefire, and facilitating negociations. For all practical purposes, there will be no intervention without a voluntary ceasefire from both sides. The chance of a lasting ceasefire is fairly low at present, which decreases the likelyhood of American intervention.

Another argument against intervention is that America's interests are not at stake, and they don't need more military expenditure at this point. Paying for military intervention is like pissing on your tax money, and then burning it. Those costs are basically a black hole. Defence planners are already talking about over-extension. For America there would not seem to be any tangible gain from intervention. Liberia has little strategic value, and no strategic resources to keep secure (such as oil). The only gains from intervention would be diplomatic. America could demonstrate some compassion by intervening where their interests are not at stake. This could give them a bit more clout internationally, since America's influence has been changing with their new commitment to unilateralism.

So, should America intervene? My gut says they they should and beat back both sides to ensure humanitarian aid. On the other hand, they could be playing into the hands of Charles Taylor, who could conveniently stay in power, or manipulate things form behind the scenes. Really, Mr. Talyor should be indicted for crimes against humanity in the International Criminal Court. What would happen in Liberia if America did intervene? What if they could force Mr. Taylor out? Would they play the kingmaker in Liberia as well? The other thing is that, despite the moral ramifications, it make more practical sense to wait for some calm on the ground. This looks unlikely. Maybe the rebels can take the capital and oust Charles Taylor. What will happen then? God knows!